China's New Climate Plan Lowers Targets, But Renewable Growth Offers Hope

China has adjusted its climate targets for the next five years, slightly reducing its ambition to cut carbon emissions per unit of GDP by 17% between 2026 and 2030. This new target is a step back from the previous goal of an 18% reduction for the 2021-2025 period, which China did not meet. Analysts suggest that this change could allow emissions to rise by 3% to 6% over the next five years, depending on economic growth rates. Despite this, experts believe that China's continued investment in renewable energy could lead to faster emissions reductions than the official targets suggest.

In 2025, China saw a 0.3% decline in emissions from its energy and industrial sectors, marking the first full-year decrease outside of major economic disruptions. This reduction was largely driven by a surge in solar power, which is increasingly meeting the country's growing electricity demand. Additionally, efforts to decarbonize sectors such as transport, cement, and metals have contributed to this decline. Under the Paris Agreement, China had pledged to reduce emissions intensity by 65% from 2005 levels by the end of the decade.

Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute, noted that economic disruptions from the COVID-19 pandemic, slower growth, and a reliance on heavy industries have complicated China's progress, creating a significant gap in achieving its climate goals. The new interim target reflects a recalibration of China's approach, acknowledging the challenges faced.

China's latest five-year plan does not set a cap on total emissions but emphasizes the expansion of clean energy. The plan aims to double non-fossil fuel energy over the next decade, focusing on energy storage, green fuels, and cleaning up polluting industries. This shift indicates that China's clean technology development is becoming a primary driver of emissions reductions, moving beyond traditional administrative controls.

However, the plan's ambiguous stance on coal, China's largest energy source, complicates the overall strategy. While it advocates for a peak in coal consumption, it does not set a target for reducing coal use, which President Xi Jinping had suggested in 2021. In 2025, China added the most coal-fired capacity since 2015, and the retirement of older plants has been slow.

Andreas Sieber from 350.org criticized the five-year plan for its insufficient progress on coal, emphasizing the need for a decisive phase-down of coal to match the rapid expansion of wind and solar energy. Despite these challenges, the continued growth in renewable energy offers hope for keeping China's CO2 emissions on a downward trajectory, though policymakers have yet to commit to this path.