Iran's Strategic Approach to Conflict: Raising the Stakes for Opponents

In Iranian political discourse, significant conflicts are often termed "imposed wars," reflecting the belief that these wars are forced upon Iran by external powers rather than chosen by Tehran. Iranian leaders classify three major conflicts in this category: the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988), the Twelve-Day War initiated by Israel in June 2025, and the ongoing conflict that began on February 28, 2026, when Israel and the United States launched attacks on Iran.

The 45-year gap between the first and second conflicts highlights a key aspect of Iran's strategic outlook. Despite its rhetoric and military displays, Iran's leadership has historically aimed to avoid direct warfare due to its significant political and economic costs. This approach also reflects a broader tendency within the leadership to avoid situations that catch them unprepared. For instance, Iran's response to the Arab Spring was marked by confusion, as the uprisings took the leadership by surprise, similar to the reaction to the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7.

This strategic culture explains Iran's response to the current conflict: rather than seeking outright victory, Tehran aims to ensure that any attempt to overthrow it incurs prohibitive regional and global costs. Iran's preference for avoiding direct military confrontation is also evident in its dealings with Western powers, particularly concerning its nuclear program. Tensions over Iran's nuclear activities intensified in August 2002 with the publication of images of the Natanz nuclear facility. Subsequently, Iranian officials engaged in numerous negotiations with European powers and later with the P5+1 group, reflecting Tehran's preference for diplomacy over military conflict.

The situation shifted dramatically when the US, under Donald Trump's administration, withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in May 2018, adopting a more aggressive stance towards Iran. Israel supported this harder line, advocating military options against Iran's nuclear program. Tensions escalated further with the assassination of Qassem Soleimani in January 2020, marking a significant escalation in US-Iran confrontation and raising fears of a broader regional war.

The assassination, coupled with intensified economic pressures under the "maximum pressure" policy, deepened Iran's domestic instability and reinforced Tehran's belief that the US and Israel were preparing for military confrontation. This belief was further solidified after the October 7 attacks on Israel, which led Israeli leaders to hold Iran accountable due to its support for Hamas. Consequently, Israel pushed to expand the conflict to include Iran directly, targeting Iran's regional allies and engaging in confrontations with Iran's network.

Direct tensions escalated in April 2024 with the bombing of the Iranian consulate in Damascus, seen as an Israeli strike on Iranian personnel. These clashes appeared to be preparatory operations leading to the June 2025 conflict, which Iran viewed as an Israeli attempt to impose new engagement rules based on perceived Iranian weakness. The conflict ended with Israeli strikes on key Iranian nuclear facilities, but tensions persisted, with continued signals from Israel and the US of potential future confrontations.

By the time the third imposed war began, the objectives of Israel and the US seemed broader, aiming not only to damage Iran's nuclear program but also to weaken or overthrow its political system. Iranian leaders, therefore, prepared for such scenarios through military and security measures, viewing survival as tied to both political power and the preservation of a Shia Islamic ideological system. Despite doubts about the success of diplomacy, Iran made concessions during negotiations to avoid broader conflict.

When the war began, and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was assassinated, Iran's response indicated a different approach to the conflict. Iran's strategy is to raise the cost of war for all involved, signaling that destabilizing Tehran would have regional and global repercussions. This is evident in Iran's targeting of economic and energy infrastructure, such as oil resources and the Strait of Hormuz, causing fluctuations in global markets. Through this strategy, Iran aims to demonstrate that its government's fall will not be easy, while also countering efforts by the US and Israel to weaken the state internally.