Potential Gains for Russia Amid US-Israeli Conflict with Iran

The recent US-Israeli military actions against Iran, including the assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, have stirred unease in Moscow. Some Russian commentators fear a similar attack could target Russia, despite its nuclear capabilities. They cite Western rhetoric about potential conflict with Russia as evidence of such intentions.

While the situation in Iran raises concerns, it also aligns with Russia's geopolitical strategy, particularly its aggression in Ukraine. The Kremlin views the US-led West as unpredictable, reinforcing its stance on international relations. Russian President Vladimir Putin likely sees parallels between the current conflict and the 2011 NATO intervention in Libya, which resulted in the ousting of Muammar Gaddafi. This event influenced Putin's decision to return to the presidency, fearing a similar fate for Russia if it allowed Western "democratization" efforts.

Putin's crackdown on protests in Moscow in 2011 and subsequent foreign policy moves, including intervention in Ukraine, were shaped by these perceptions. The current conflict in Iran may further validate his actions in Ukraine, reinforcing the Kremlin's narrative of defending against Western aggression.

Despite initiating a war in Ukraine, Putin views himself as upholding the post-World War II order, which he believes is threatened by Western overconfidence. The Russian military strategy in Ukraine draws from Soviet doctrines of preemptive action, targeting nations like Ukraine and Georgia after NATO's 2007 decision to consider their membership.

Iran has emerged as an unexpected ally for Russia, providing drone technology during the Ukraine invasion. However, Russia's ties with Iran are not strong enough to warrant intervention on Iran's behalf. The Kremlin maintains a non-aggression pact with Israel, which has refrained from supplying Ukraine with weapons or joining sanctions against Russia. This relationship with Israel also benefits Russian oligarchs who have ties to the country.

Russia's neutrality is further influenced by US President Donald Trump's near-neutral stance on the Russia-Ukraine conflict and his efforts to negotiate an end to it. Moscow seeks to preserve its relationship with the Trump administration and avoid actions that could prolong the war.

In the short term, the US-Israeli conflict with Iran benefits Russia economically. The war has driven up oil and gas prices, increasing Russian revenue from energy exports. Higher energy costs could strain the European Union's ability to fund Ukraine's war efforts. Additionally, a prolonged Middle Eastern conflict could deplete US military resources that might otherwise support Ukraine.

Domestically, the chaos in Iran may bolster Putin's image as a national protector, reinforcing a "besieged fortress" mentality among Russians. This perception could strengthen his authoritarian rule by portraying him as a defender against external threats.

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Al Jazeera.