US Air Force's New ICBM Faces Deployment Challenges Amid Infrastructure Delays

The US Air Force's new Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) is nearing its first test flight, but uncertainties remain about when the necessary missile silos will be completed. The Sentinel is set to replace the aging Minuteman III fleet, which has been in service since 1970. However, the full deployment of Sentinel missiles and the construction of 450 new silos are expected to take longer than initially planned, extending into the early 2030s.

Recent developments have opened the possibility of equipping each Sentinel missile with Multiple Independently targetable Reentry Vehicles (MIRVs), following the expiration of the New START nuclear arms control treaty between the US and Russia. This treaty had previously restricted the use of MIRVs on ballistic missiles. The Air Force is now considering its options regarding the missile's payload capabilities.

The Sentinel program's budget has significantly increased from $77.7 billion to nearly $141 billion due to a "Nunn-McCurdy breach," which mandates reviews for overbudget defense programs. Despite the cost overruns, the Pentagon deemed the program too vital to national security to cancel. The Air Force plans to construct new silos rather than modify existing Minuteman III silos, as the latter option proved too costly and time-consuming.

Construction of the new silos will span across several states, including Colorado, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, and Wyoming. This project will include 24 new forward launch centers, three centralized wing command centers, and over 5,000 miles of fiber connections. It is considered the largest US government civil works project since the interstate highway system and the most complex acquisition program the Air Force has undertaken.

Gen. Dale White, the Pentagon's director of critical major weapons systems, announced plans to restructure the Sentinel program by the end of the year, after which an updated budget will be released. The military has not constructed new missile silos since the late 1960s, nor developed a new ICBM since the 1980s, presenting additional challenges.

Maintaining the Minuteman III missiles on alert while transitioning to the Sentinel has also proven difficult. The Minuteman III was initially scheduled for retirement around 2036, but it may remain operational until 2050 to ensure no gap in capability occurs during the transition. The Air Force has ordered 659 Sentinel missiles from Northrop Grumman, with over 400 intended for alert status and the remainder for spares and testing.

The first Sentinel test launch is planned for 2027 at Vandenberg Space Force Base in California. Meanwhile, the Air Force has begun decommissioning Minuteman III silos, with Northrop Grumman breaking ground on a prototype Sentinel silo in Utah. The Trump administration seeks a new arms control agreement that includes Russia and China, as the expiration of New START leaves the world's largest nuclear forces without binding treaties.