European Union Divided Over Response to US-Israel Conflict with Iran

Iran has issued a warning to European leaders against aligning with the United States and Israel in a conflict that has destabilized the Middle East and disrupted global economies. While European countries have collectively condemned Iran's retaliatory strikes on non-combatants in the Gulf, their reactions to the US-Israeli actions that provoked these strikes have been inconsistent and fragmented.

The situation is complicated by Iran's close ties with Russia, a nation that the European Union has largely united against due to its actions in Ukraine. Despite this, the discovery of a Russian antenna in a drone that struck Cyprus, an EU member, has not galvanized a unified European stance against Iran.

European responses vary widely. Spain has taken a firm stance by expelling US military aircraft from its bases, prompting a strong reaction from US President Donald Trump, who threatened to sever all trade with Spain. In contrast, Germany has aligned itself with US objectives, with Chancellor Friedrich Merz expressing support for ending Iran's regime and its nuclear ambitions.

Germany's position diverges from that of the UK and France, who had previously supported negotiations with Iran even after the US withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal. Spain's approach is rooted in a commitment to international law, as emphasized by policy fellow Jose-Ignacio Torreblanca, who noted Spain's consistent call for legal adherence in conflicts involving Ukraine, Gaza, and now Iran.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has allowed the use of a UK military base in Cyprus for defensive purposes, emphasizing that the action is in line with international law and aimed at preventing Iranian missile strikes. The UK is not participating in offensive strikes but supports defensive measures in the region.

Amid these divisions, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has advocated for a unified EU approach based on negotiation, containment, and de-escalation. She has called for a credible transition in Iran and a halt to its nuclear and ballistic programs.

Some European nations are beginning to coalesce around defensive measures. Greece has deployed advanced fighter aircraft and frigates to defend Cyprus from potential drone attacks, despite the frigates not being fully operational. France and the UK have also committed military resources to bolster defenses in Cyprus.

The evolving situation highlights the challenges Europe faces in defending itself as the US reduces its presence in the region. Experts suggest that Europe must consider both rearmament and legal frameworks for mutual defense outside of NATO. Cyprus, not being a NATO member, cannot invoke NATO's Article 5 but could potentially invoke the EU Treaty’s Article 42.7 for mutual defense, a move that has not yet been made.

Elena Lazarou of the Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy emphasized the need for clarity in the EU's mutual defense obligations, suggesting that the time has come to activate Europe's mutual defense clause. Von der Leyen's recent statements at the Munich Security Conference underscore the necessity of mutual defense as a binding obligation within the EU treaty.