Israel's Strategic Objective in Iran: Pushing for Regime Change Amid Ongoing Conflict

As the joint military offensive by Israel and the United States against Iran continues, Israel's strategic objective of regime change in Iran is becoming increasingly apparent. This development follows the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, after which Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed the Iranian populace directly, urging them to rise and overthrow the current regime. Netanyahu's message, delivered in Farsi, called on Iranians to "come to the streets" and "overthrow the regime of fear," suggesting that the ongoing US-Israeli airstrikes, which have resulted in significant casualties, are intended to support this goal.

Experts, such as Ahron Bregman from King's College London, note that while Israel's official stance may not explicitly call for regime change, the underlying intent is clear. Bregman highlights that many Israelis, including those with liberal views, support the military actions, believing that the removal of Iran's regime could transform the Middle East for the better. However, there is skepticism about Israel's commitment to ensuring a smooth transition of power in Iran, with some analysts suggesting that Israel is more interested in the collapse of the Iranian state rather than a peaceful regime change.

Former Israeli government adviser Daniel Levy suggests that Israel's leadership may not be genuinely interested in a stable transition, viewing the collapse of Iran as beneficial for regional dynamics. This perspective is echoed by recent anti-Turkiye rhetoric in Israel, indicating a broader regional strategy. Despite public support for the military actions, there are uncertainties about the war's duration and the extent of US support, given the mixed reactions in the US and among its Gulf allies.

Domestically, the Israeli public appears to support the conflict, viewing it as a necessary confrontation with a longstanding adversary. Years of political messaging have framed Iran as an existential threat to Israel, with politicians across the spectrum backing the military actions. Figures such as Yair Golan, Yair Lapid, and Naftali Bennett have all expressed support for the offensive, emphasizing the perceived threat posed by Iran's military capabilities and intentions.

Political pollster Mitchell Barak notes that the joint operation with the United States is a source of national pride for many Israelis, who see the conflict as a decisive move to eliminate the Iranian threat. Despite the risks and uncertainties, there is a strong resolve among Israelis to see the conflict through, driven by a belief in the necessity of regime change to ensure their security.