Why Trump means the Cuban Revolution faces its biggest threat yet

The Museum of the Revolution in Havana showcases the dire conditions in Cuba before the 1959 revolution, highlighting the poverty and corruption under Fulgencio Batista's regime. However, many Cubans today, like Lisandra Botey, feel they are living in similar conditions, struggling with poverty and scarcity. Lisandra's family, residing in a makeshift home in Havana, faces daily challenges, including cooking with firewood due to the lack of gas and enduring frequent power outages. Her husband, Brenei Hernández, a construction worker, often worries about their next meal, as the Cuban economy has been in decline since the pandemic.

The situation worsened after the U.S. removed Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro from power, leading to a halt in oil supplies to Cuba. The U.S. economic embargo, intensified under President Donald Trump, threatens tariffs on countries supplying oil to Cuba. Traditional allies like Mexico, Russia, and China have not filled the void, although the U.S. Treasury has allowed limited oil sales for humanitarian purposes.

Tensions between the U.S. and Cuba have escalated, with a recent incident involving Cuban border guards shooting individuals on a U.S.-registered speedboat. The Trump administration's strategy appears aimed at deepening Cuba's economic crisis to destabilize the communist regime. Cuban economist Ricardo Torres notes that Trump's approach changes the traditional U.S. playbook on Cuba, with the goal of regime change.

The fuel crisis has led to widespread blackouts, affecting hospitals, schools, and waste collection. Despite Cuba's historical achievements in healthcare and education, the current situation is dire. Ricardo Torres suggests that Cuba's fuel reserves might last only six to eight weeks, with extreme rationing already in place. The black market for fuel is thriving, as citizens face long waits for limited supplies.

Despite the hardships, Brenei Hernández blames the Cuban government rather than the U.S., expressing a desire for change. His candidness reflects a growing discontent among Cubans, who are increasingly vocal about their struggles. The Trump administration's "maximum pressure" strategy aims for regime change, though the method remains uncertain.

Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel condemns the U.S. policy as inhumane and illegal, questioning the right of a world power to deny fuel to a smaller nation. This marks a stark contrast to the Obama administration's efforts to normalize relations with Cuba, which many Cubans viewed as a hopeful period. As the situation unfolds, the future of the Cuban Revolution remains uncertain, with the island facing its most significant threat since the Cold War.